Model predictions

Adelaide v Carlton
09 April @ Adelaide Oval
+76	HGA
+88	Elo rating	−81
80.34%	Win prob. (Elo)	19.66%
24.7	xSS	24.1
57.54%	Win prob. (xSS)	42.46%
+1.382	Team elite tier	+1.136
+0.093	Team standard	+0.047
−0.765	Team subpar tier	−0.780
60.75%	Win prob. (TiCo)	39.25%
5.2	Forward strength	5.0
6.3	Midfield strength	5.8
5.1	Ruck strength	6.0
7.4	Backline strength	6.4
49.65%	Win prob. (APP)	50.35%
57.99%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	42.01%
Adelaide by 4 points. Upset potential: High.

Collingwood v Fremantle
10 April @ Adelaide Oval
+68	HGA
+69	Elo rating	+73
59.08%	Win prob. (Elo)	40.92%
25.6	xSS	27.3
41.19%	Win prob. (xSS)	58.81%
+1.179	Team elite tier	+1.354
+0.093	Team standard	+0.031
−0.942	Team subpar tier	−0.801
61.65%	Win prob. (TiCo)	38.35%
5.3	Forward strength	6.9
3.4	Midfield strength	6.0
5.2	Ruck strength	3.8
5.7	Backline strength	5.3
45.15%	Win prob. (APP)	54.85%
36.83%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	63.17%
Fremantle by 7 points. Upset potential: High.

North Melbourne v Brisbane
11 April @ Barossa Oval
+69	HGA
−122	Elo rating	+160
22.66%	Win prob. (Elo)	77.34%
22.5	xSS	23.3
56.07%	Win prob. (xSS)	43.93%
+1.147	Team elite tier	+1.112
+0.072	Team standard	+0.104
−0.962	Team subpar tier	−0.724
45.61%	Win prob. (TiCo)	54.39%
5.0	Forward strength	5.4
6.4	Midfield strength	5.8
8.1	Ruck strength	5.7
3.4	Backline strength	5.9
46.05%	Win prob. (APP)	53.95%
37.89%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	62.11%
Brisbane by 6 points. Upset potential: High.

Essendon v Melbourne
11 April @ Adelaide Oval
−6	HGA
−190	Elo rating	−16
26.23%	Win prob. (Elo)	73.77%
20.7	xSS	21.9
44.06%	Win prob. (xSS)	55.94%
+1.030	Team elite tier	+1.376
+0.078	Team standard	+0.065
−0.860	Team subpar tier	−0.710
47.73%	Win prob. (TiCo)	52.27%
4.0	Forward strength	5.4
5.2	Midfield strength	8.5
0.9	Ruck strength	9.9
4.2	Backline strength	5.9
46.84%	Win prob. (APP)	53.16%
33.32%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	66.68%
Melbourne by 8 points. Upset potential: High.

Sydney v Gold Coast
11 April @ Norwood Oval
+45	HGA
+67	Elo rating	+109
50.52%	Win prob. (Elo)	49.48%
27.3	xSS	27.0
51.93%	Win prob. (xSS)	48.07%
+1.375	Team elite tier	+1.235
+0.080	Team standard	+0.118
−0.813	Team subpar tier	−0.750
48.02%	Win prob. (TiCo)	51.98%
5.8	Forward strength	6.0
5.8	Midfield strength	5.7
8.8	Ruck strength	5.8
6.6	Backline strength	5.3
48.89%	Win prob. (APP)	51.11%
52.24%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	47.76%
Sydney by 1 point. Upset potential: High.

Hawthorn v Footscray
11 April @ Adelaide Oval
+4	HGA
+144	Elo rating	+172
46.41%	Win prob. (Elo)	53.59%
28.0	xSS	31.1
32.02%	Win prob. (xSS)	67.98%
+1.161	Team elite tier	+1.308
+0.091	Team standard	+0.119
−0.767	Team subpar tier	−0.958
44.19%	Win prob. (TiCo)	55.81%
6.9	Forward strength	5.1
5.6	Midfield strength	7.3
4.0	Ruck strength	5.9
6.3	Backline strength	4.8
51.77%	Win prob. (APP)	48.23%
50.75%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	49.25%
Hawthorn by 1 point. Upset potential: High.

Geelong v West Coast
12 April @ Norwood Oval
+69	HGA
+105	Elo rating	−234
91.27%	Win prob. (Elo)	8.73%
22.4	xSS	20.7
64.06%	Win prob. (xSS)	35.94%
+1.241	Team elite tier	+1.119
+0.092	Team standard	+0.033
−0.813	Team subpar tier	−0.785
60.76%	Win prob. (TiCo)	39.24%
6.7	Forward strength	5.4
5.3	Midfield strength	5.5
4.1	Ruck strength	3.1
6.6	Backline strength	4.4
58.32%	Win prob. (APP)	41.68%
77.54%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	22.46%
Geelong by 14 points. Upset potential: Medium.

GWS v Richmond
12 April @ Barossa Oval
−57	HGA
+49	Elo rating	−211
76.22%	Win prob. (Elo)	23.78%
20.9	xSS	19.3
70.52%	Win prob. (xSS)	29.48%
+1.191	Team elite tier	+1.144
+0.091	Team standard	+0.057
−0.668	Team subpar tier	−0.919
56.58%	Win prob. (TiCo)	43.42%
4.9	Forward strength	4.0
6.7	Midfield strength	4.6
4.8	Ruck strength	5.9
6.7	Backline strength	4.4
56.37%	Win prob. (APP)	43.63%
68.88%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	31.12%
GWS by 9 points. Upset potential: Medium.

Port Adelaide v St Kilda
12 April @ Adelaide Oval
+81	HGA
−111	Elo rating	−32
50.19%	Win prob. (Elo)	49.81%
23.1	xSS	22.1
50.15%	Win prob. (xSS)	49.85%
+1.367	Team elite tier	+1.285
+0.061	Team standard	+0.090
−0.832	Team subpar tier	−0.850
42.81%	Win prob. (TiCo)	57.19%
5.9	Forward strength	5.1
5.5	Midfield strength	5.2
6.0	Ruck strength	6.1
5.9	Backline strength	5.7
53.60%	Win prob. (APP)	46.40%
62.38%	Win prob. (Ensemble)	37.62%
Port Adelaide by 6 points. Upset potential: High.

Tips are based on five models:

1. A team rating model (Elo) that tracks performance over time. 1,500 is the league average Elo rating. Home ground advantage (HGA) represents (a) the difference in experience between the two teams at the game’s venue for the current season and the two before, and (b) how far the teams have to travel to the venue, penalising long distance travel.
2. An expected scoring shots model (xSS) that predicts each team’s scoring shots based on past offensive and defensive performance, and uses the difference between teams to estimate win percent.
3. A tiered contribution model (TiCo) that assesses the difference in how well elite (top 25%) players, standard players, and subpar (bottom 25%) players perform between teams. A higher standard provides more support for the elite players, and a larger and worse subpar tier is a drag on team performance.
4. An aggregated player performance (APP) model that predicts the relative strength of each line against the opponent’s by modelling player performance and building team strength from the player level up.
5. An ensemble that uses the four above models, and their confidence, to give an overall estimate. More accurate models are weighted more strongly.